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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2025

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  • Apple has $68B in cash on hand. Not stocks or other investments, cash.

    And when they put all of that into their new RAM business, their investors are going to have a bunch of questions.

    Yes, but that doesn’t change that there are dozens of companies that could make ram but don’t because they pass off the price increases and blame ram manufacturers while not risking their own money.

    Even with tens of billions in cash it’s not that simple. Like I said, you first start off by convincing a bunch of people their non-competes and give up their massive annual bonuses, so that’s going to be an investment that the existing companies don’t have to make. Then you’ll have caught up with RAM manufacturing in about 10 years or so once you’ve ironed out all the details.

    China, the biggest economic powerhouse in the world and the epicenter of modern electronics manufacturing, is still not making HBM3 or 4 or whatever nvidia uses now for Rubin at a commercially viable scale at CXMT, they’re only barely making enough DDR5 to get contracts.

    That’s after starting the company in 2016 and getting DDR4 manufacturing going in 2020 and getting people from Samsung to steal trade secrets (and come work for them).

    Just because you can build a fab for 20 billion doesn’t mean it’s only 20 billion to get started, or a quick 2-3 year endeavor to do so. Publicly traded companies can’t really do this because it’s a bunch of expenses over multiple years without a single cent of revenue for many years. This needs to be properly private cash or government backing.




  • It takes double digit billions to start a manufacturing plant and that’s when you already have people who know what to do.

    Most countries can’t really afford this in their budgets and I’m saying countries because it’d be a stupid endeavour for most private enterprises to even attempt. CXMT (DRAM) and YMTC (NAND) absolutely are sponsored by China, which is the only real way to get one of those companies going these days.

    Google, Apple, etc could start their own memory companies if they wanted to. But it’s a hell of an expense to justify to your investors.





  • What’s the power scale of yours?

    I suspect the big ones use evaporative cooling because they’re trying to build in the gigawatt scale and IIRC there was talk about single racks reaching a megawatt soon, currently they’re ~150 kW.

    The power density of those new nVIdia GPU compute servers is nuts and using evaporative cooling means less energy use than closed loop.

    What I’m saying is, some of those planned datacenters wouldn’t be feasible with closed-loop water cooling. And yes, I agree with you that this should be legislated. If they can’t cool their servers without evaporating a bunch of drinking water, they can… have fewer servers.



  • There are over 300 companies with over a $50B market cap. The money is there.

    That doesn’t mean they all have $20B in cash to spare, OR the expertise to pull it off. Even China is still playing catch-up and nobody else is even trying because to get started in 2026 would mean poaching a bunch of people with nasty non-compete clauses to even get started planning.

    There are documented cases of these same 3 companies colluding to constrain supply, even openly discussing what the target price of DRAM should be. Some of the people who were found guilty got their fines or even prison time and then came back and got promoted.