It will never lighten the demand because the speed they are building new data centers is always going to be faster than any DRAM manufacturer can ramp up production rate on their existing production line or building new production line. Building data centers is always easier than making DRAM chips in a fab because of the complete different level of technological sophistication.
This can only help reduce the rate which the demand sprints further and further ahead than supply, but ultimately the only thing that can stop the demand from further increasing exponentially so that DRAM supply could catch up and start to lower down the price is for the whole generative AI industry (among other things) to implode so they don’t all race against each other building new data centers anymore.
And we can already see that new consumer DDR5 RAM boards and consumer products using the Chinese CXMT DRAM chips (such as some of the recent Lenovo ThinkPad laptops) are not one cent cheaper than similar spec’ed products using non-Chinese DRAM chips, in fact some are even $100-200 more expensive, probably because the scale of supply chain is still lagging behind for them because the Chinese DRAM chips with modern specs only became available in the market relatively recently.
It would still help for the same reason the strait of hormuz being closed is pushing up prices in the US despite us not actually using the oil from there. Any change in global supply has an effect on prices.
I’ve often wondered about this, how much trouble would you get in for that?
I suppose by the time you managed to get one to your country it wouldn’t still be cost effective after the extra middle men?
Idk like surely they don’t have sniffer dogs for RAM in packages do they?
If it was only a minor infraction with no jail time I’d seriously consider rolling the dice on it because I bet its like half the price of whatever equivalent they’ll sell you in western countries. Can’t do it with the cars but RAM seems do able for sure.
You need a motherboard, too. With secure boot permanently activated you will only be allowed to run windows, which only runs on properly registered hardware. But then again, with your motherboard, how do you run the internet verification app if your operating system doesn’t get the keys to log in?
Think it will have enough production volume before Ai implodes to make a difference?
CXMT and other Chinese producers already have been ramping up production, all signs still point to shortages for a year or until said theoretical Ai implosion where orders stop getting paid.
The dells, hps and lenovos of the world can’t sell it, so it’s not in retail, so typical people won’t really have access to it. Same deal with all the phone manufacturers and then basically any electronic device with NAND.
It can still provide pressure to lower price but it inhibits the effects locally quite a bit. It’s like how super cheap cars can be imported to latin american countries but if you want anything remotely similar in the US the costs to get it here make it pointless and thus no cheap cars exist here brand new (more or less.)
It’ll still be embargoed.
More for the rest of us then!
Yes, but it’ll lighten the demand on other DRAM manufacturers, so we should still see some benefits.
It will never lighten the demand because the speed they are building new data centers is always going to be faster than any DRAM manufacturer can ramp up production rate on their existing production line or building new production line. Building data centers is always easier than making DRAM chips in a fab because of the complete different level of technological sophistication.
This can only help reduce the rate which the demand sprints further and further ahead than supply, but ultimately the only thing that can stop the demand from further increasing exponentially so that DRAM supply could catch up and start to lower down the price is for the whole generative AI industry (among other things) to implode so they don’t all race against each other building new data centers anymore.
And we can already see that new consumer DDR5 RAM boards and consumer products using the Chinese CXMT DRAM chips (such as some of the recent Lenovo ThinkPad laptops) are not one cent cheaper than similar spec’ed products using non-Chinese DRAM chips, in fact some are even $100-200 more expensive, probably because the scale of supply chain is still lagging behind for them because the Chinese DRAM chips with modern specs only became available in the market relatively recently.
Yeah, there’s already a few Chinese memory makers who have been ramping up production as fast as they can. Feels like a drop in a river though.
It would still help for the same reason the strait of hormuz being closed is pushing up prices in the US despite us not actually using the oil from there. Any change in global supply has an effect on prices.
It’s those goddamned globalists (☞ﾟヮﾟ)☞
I’ve often wondered about this, how much trouble would you get in for that?
I suppose by the time you managed to get one to your country it wouldn’t still be cost effective after the extra middle men?
Idk like surely they don’t have sniffer dogs for RAM in packages do they?
If it was only a minor infraction with no jail time I’d seriously consider rolling the dice on it because I bet its like half the price of whatever equivalent they’ll sell you in western countries. Can’t do it with the cars but RAM seems do able for sure.
You need a motherboard, too. With secure boot permanently activated you will only be allowed to run windows, which only runs on properly registered hardware. But then again, with your motherboard, how do you run the internet verification app if your operating system doesn’t get the keys to log in?
Much like other things, prices are still set globally according to global supply and demand.
Think it will have enough production volume before Ai implodes to make a difference?
CXMT and other Chinese producers already have been ramping up production, all signs still point to shortages for a year or until said theoretical Ai implosion where orders stop getting paid.
Any production volume is production volume and impacts price.
That price changes if you flood the market with ram
thatswhatisaid
The Nortel remembers.
So, I can’t import it? Sounds difficult to enforce.
The dells, hps and lenovos of the world can’t sell it, so it’s not in retail, so typical people won’t really have access to it. Same deal with all the phone manufacturers and then basically any electronic device with NAND.
It can still provide pressure to lower price but it inhibits the effects locally quite a bit. It’s like how super cheap cars can be imported to latin american countries but if you want anything remotely similar in the US the costs to get it here make it pointless and thus no cheap cars exist here brand new (more or less.)