“kalshi trader”
bro, what the actual fuck. go back to the stock market or the casino. why do we even need more fucking gambling. Does anyone want to bet on the amount of lint in my belly button? might as fucking well.
This week, the situation hit a boiling point when the song “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd surged to number one on a Spotify chart. In a series of X posts, Davies outlined his suspected culprit: “botting,” or scammers who purchase bots to juice streaming numbers.
Oh, can people manipulate the stupid bullshit you’re betting on? damn, sounds like a “you’re a fucking moron with a gambling problem” problem to me.
Fuck kalshi and any fucker stupid enough to gamble in there. Their adds alone are fucking cancer on society, let alone the “service” being a way to fleece dumbfucks out of their money. Burn it the fuck down.
It’s interesting how prediction markets were kind of sold as this benefit to society because it was a way to tap into the collective reasoning. But then it just got gained by cheaters because that’s mostly what people do it seems
What’s the logic behind tapping into collective reasoning and how is it (supposedly) beneficial?
I think the supposed logic is that if you average everyone’s predictions together you’ll be pretty close to accurate. Similar to how a crowd of people sing with near perfect pitch even though any individual in that crowd isn’t. However, this runs head first into Goodhart’s Law and immediately falls apart
I think the supposed logic is that if you average everyone’s predictions together you’ll be pretty close to accurate.
So the assumption is that, on average, people intuitively know the truth? I think this falls apart the second you look at all the disinformation, common misconceptions, biases and all. There’s a bunch of fallacies named after gambling, because people can’t be trusted to be rational. I’m not sure how crowdsourcing their guesses should correct that.
However, this runs head first into Goodhart’s Law and immediately falls apart
If I got a bonus every time I saw someone running up against Goodhart’s Law, the quality of my customers’ analytics would nosedive.
I love this adage as much as I hate “If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it”. That sentence is simultaneously half the reason my job exists and the reason for half the bogus requests I deal with.
I don’t see how it’s anything other than regular old gambling.
Betting against others always encourages deception and manipulation. You want to make your odds as favourable as possible while trying to make them look bad so others bet against you.
That makes it worse than, say, slot machines, where you’re really only cheating yourself.
It’s almost like prediction markets are a scam, weird
no crying in the casino
Paywall
Reader view gets around it for me
What’s that?
Most web browsers have a reader view which simplifies the display so that it is easy to read like a book or newspaper. This mode often removes soft paywalls as they are just an overlay.
Non-paywall: Link
