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Joined 7 months ago
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Cake day: November 30th, 2025

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  • Everything you say is reasonable, provided you have reasonable people in place. It is very simple to verify that many senior people left the US military in the last year and a half, someone whose last significant role prior to being promoted to secretary of defense was a media gig, and many actions with the military have been done for ideological, rather than pragmatic, reasons. The most recent that leaps to mind is the reinstating of required flu vaccinations after their current leadership discovered both that flu vaccines work pretty well and that having a significant number of sick soldiers doesn’t. Actions like those place their other decisions under scrutiny, whether that be starting the war in the first place or using an LLM to help, or perhaps entirely, create the battle plan they used.




  • Well, having the tools and knowing how best to use them are two different things. The fact they used an LLM to determine how to use the tools is indicative of them not being overly adept at using them. Also, the fact they got a worse outcome than relying on experts, which they should have easy access to, is typical of situations where LLMs have been used to replace experts. So you’re correct in that this single instance of LLMs doing poorly isn’t a good way to determine if it is useful (in this field), but it follows a common trend of trying to shoehorn LLMs into adjacent fields and failing spectacularly.

    On a broader note, the results of a war tend to follow the better leaders. America spent 20 years at war in a large zone with very difficult goals, and easily held their own, even if they couldn’t reach the overall conditions for ultimate success. Now they are in a war with a much smaller field of activity and fairly narrowly defined goals, so should have no trouble building siege conditions to wear the opponent down, yet did it so poorly and somehow attached it to neighboring wars in such a way as to make both the goals harder to achieve and the risks to do so greater. This isn’t the fault of LLMs, but it doesn’t surprise me that someone who would do that would also turn to LLMs to help draft their battle plans after weeding out their more experienced generals.