China literally just put out an open weight model that verifiably beats the unverified Mythos claims in some scenarios; the reality is that they most likely want the US to “win” the AI race (which they cant, closed models will always be beat by open weight, which is what China is doing)

They’re already on shaky finances, having an export ban would just pop the bubble sooner (and what remains of the US economy along with it)

They are scaling up but as with other things they will most likely scale to their inner market first, and then I doubt they’ll subsidize a price depreciation to help westerners when they can get the profits for themselves