The AI boom has turned the standard profit margin model on its head, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok—and it’s making the industry’s growth unsustainable.
In the same way it’s accurate to call the human brain a prediction machine
I have seen no evidience presented that the human brain is simply making statistical predictions.
This seems to be a relatively new thing some people are asserting, because they see the LLM behavior and have decided that absolutely it looks so human like it must act the same, and since we understand that LLM is fundamentally statistical prediction of a token, then obviously human consciousness must operate on the same principle.
Even the latest models generate the sort of mistakes that stem from the fundamental limitations. A lot has been done in some contexts for making that not matter so much (e.g. in software development, the strategy is that code may have some verifiable goal, and the models can let the mistakes fly, then take the feedback from the goal, and iterate more). So it still can be very useful, but clearly it isn’t human like because of some of the completely dumb behaviors that result from it not actually thinking about it. It is at it’s best when either mistakes don’t matter (particularly fiction) or at least first mistakes don’t matter and can be automatically reconciled with facts.
By nature, the meme examples will get better because everyone talks about it and suddenly having all that discussion in training data and in search results, the statistics fix. However the operating principle behind them remains the same.
I have seen no evidience presented that the human brain is simply making statistical predictions.
This seems to be a relatively new thing some people are asserting, because they see the LLM behavior and have decided that absolutely it looks so human like it must act the same
You should study the intersection of philosophy, psychology, and what became neuroscience. The brain has been described in that way by those who had impact on the fields since the 1860s.
For the rest of your message, a thing being capable of what seem like “completely dumb behaviors” and oversights of things that seem like they should have been obvious doesn’t make it not like human. Those things could be considered our specialty.
I have seen no evidience presented that the human brain is simply making statistical predictions.
This seems to be a relatively new thing some people are asserting, because they see the LLM behavior and have decided that absolutely it looks so human like it must act the same, and since we understand that LLM is fundamentally statistical prediction of a token, then obviously human consciousness must operate on the same principle.
Even the latest models generate the sort of mistakes that stem from the fundamental limitations. A lot has been done in some contexts for making that not matter so much (e.g. in software development, the strategy is that code may have some verifiable goal, and the models can let the mistakes fly, then take the feedback from the goal, and iterate more). So it still can be very useful, but clearly it isn’t human like because of some of the completely dumb behaviors that result from it not actually thinking about it. It is at it’s best when either mistakes don’t matter (particularly fiction) or at least first mistakes don’t matter and can be automatically reconciled with facts.
By nature, the meme examples will get better because everyone talks about it and suddenly having all that discussion in training data and in search results, the statistics fix. However the operating principle behind them remains the same.
You should study the intersection of philosophy, psychology, and what became neuroscience. The brain has been described in that way by those who had impact on the fields since the 1860s.
For the rest of your message, a thing being capable of what seem like “completely dumb behaviors” and oversights of things that seem like they should have been obvious doesn’t make it not like human. Those things could be considered our specialty.