Views of China have improved recently while views of the U.S. have worsened, to the point where China is now seen more positively than the U.S. in most countries surveyed.
More also have confidence in Xi than Trump, according to a survey in three dozen countries
I wouldn’t say “never” but Taiwan and the PRC’s claims over it are remnants of a civil war that never formally ended.
While China might engage in war games around Taiwan as a form of posturing, its current place in the world system means that posturing is unlikely to become any kind of forcible annexation.
The PRC, as the world’s factory, relies on its perception by much of the world as a reliable trading partner uninterested in foreign intervention. An invasion and annexation of Taiwan would upend this perception and likely drive away trading partners.
I suspect that they’re ultimately playing the long game here. Pivot global trade away from the US, Taiwan’s biggest foreign patron, and simply let that relationship deteriorate with the US’ power projection capabilities, until the increasingly Isolated Taiwanese come to the negotiating table.
Tl;dr - China certainly postures like it wants to annex Taiwan by force, on occasion, but the political-economic reality suggests that they’re ultimately not going to do that.
I wouldn’t say “never” but Taiwan and the PRC’s claims over it are remnants of a civil war that never formally ended.
While China might engage in war games around Taiwan as a form of posturing, its current place in the world system means that posturing is unlikely to become any kind of forcible annexation.
The PRC, as the world’s factory, relies on its perception by much of the world as a reliable trading partner uninterested in foreign intervention. An invasion and annexation of Taiwan would upend this perception and likely drive away trading partners.
I suspect that they’re ultimately playing the long game here. Pivot global trade away from the US, Taiwan’s biggest foreign patron, and simply let that relationship deteriorate with the US’ power projection capabilities, until the increasingly Isolated Taiwanese come to the negotiating table.
Tl;dr - China certainly postures like it wants to annex Taiwan by force, on occasion, but the political-economic reality suggests that they’re ultimately not going to do that.
Great analysis.