cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/54422626
China’s new plan for building a new-type energy system during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period sends a signal about the continued expansion of clean energy, but the targets would have to be exceeded by a wide margin to keep China on track for its wider energy transition and climate pledges.
…
The power sector target is weak. The target for non-fossil sources to provide 50% of power generation by 2030 still leaves roughly half of China’s electricity generation coming from fossil fuels. Starting from the plan’s 2025 baseline of 42.3% non-fossil generation, if total power generation grows by 5% per year, total generation would be about 27.6% higher by 2030. Under a 50% non-fossil share, fossil fuel generation, especially from coal, could still rise by around 10.6% over the period and the target would still be met. The plan reiterates that coal consumption should peak during the 15th FYP period, but it has no quantitative cap on coal generation or capacity, nor any explicit roadmap for phasing down coal.
…
The new carbon intensity target for the power sector is even more conservative. The plan requires power sector carbon emissions per unit of generation to fall by more than 10% from 2025 level by 2030. Directionally, that is positive. But it does not imply an absolute fall in power-sector emissions. With 5% annual growth in power generation, a 10% reduction in carbon intensity would still allow power sector carbon emissions to increase by roughly 15% over the period, or almost 3% per year. To keep absolute power-sector emissions flat by 2030, carbon intensity would need to fall by roughly 22% if power generation grows by 5% per year. That makes the target look modest compared with recent progress. Ember estimates that China’s power sector carbon intensity fell to 525gCO2/kWh in 2025, down 5% from 2024. China’s official 2024 national electricity carbon footprint factor also fell by 6.9% year on year.
…
The wind and solar targets tell the same story. The plan says wind and solar should account for more than 50% of installed power capacity by 2030. That sounds large, but it requires only about 170GW of new wind and solar capacity per year, far below the roughly 430GW added in 2025. The target for 30% of generation from wind and solar is also modest. Wind and solar already accounted for 15.8% of China’s power generation in 2023, 18.6% in 2024 and 22% in 2025, increasing by an average of 3.1 percentage points per year over the past two years. Raising the share from 22% in 2025 to 30% by 2030 would require only about 1.6 percentage points per year–roughly half the recent pace.
…
The plan comes at a time of continuously heightened energy security concerns, which have in the past mostly translated into coal as an energy security provider. While Beijing’s leaders are increasingly framing the transition to clean energy as a way to ensure energy security, this new plan still leaves ample wiggle room for China’s traditional coal power interests, rather than doubling down on the clean energy sectors.
…
Overall, the targets in the plan alone are insufficient for China to meet its existing climate commitments. Many of the headline targets look like conservative floors, or the formalisation of previously signalled objectives. It suggests a continued reluctance to use binding volume targets to force down fossil generation. The missing piece could still come from the top. China’s new carbon dual-control policy gives central leaders a stronger tool to turn carbon targets into incentives for local governments. If the top leadership makes carbon control a clear priority, it could override the low ambition in this plan. Without that push, the plan will not by itself force a decline in power-sector emissions by 2030.
…