cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/54418712

Australia’s air force chief has issued a chilling warning about security in the Indo-Pacific – and hinted things could soon get a whole lot worse.

Air Marshall Stephen Chappell, who heads the Royal Australian Air Force, channelled Ned Stark’s famous Game of Thrones line to describe the deteriorating security situation on our doorstep.

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“I see the strategic outlook in the region as autumn, and autumn is deepening,” the highly-decorated airman said during a panel at this year’s Australian Strategic Policy Institute defence conference in Canberra last Thursday.

“It is our job to make sure winter doesn’t come.”

In Game of Thrones, the phrase “winter is coming” was used when conflict and uncertainty was around the corner. It’s often viewed as a call to put conflicts aside and prepare for inevitable and harsh realities.

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Incoming army chief, Lieutenant General Susan Coyle, echoed those remarks when she said it was “delusional” to think the Australian Defence Force (ADF) could fight a modern war in its current state.

“If you think that everything you have in your kit bag is going to work at the point and time of need tomorrow – we’re delusional,” she warned.

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The decorated lieutenant general said the ADF is rapidly changing to meet those threats and would be unrecognisable in five years time.

“The nature of war hasn’t changed. It’s violence, it’s conflict. It’s man on man and woman on woman. We will always need boots on the ground. But what has changed is technology,” she said.

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Experts said there is a “real and growing risk” Beijing would use a new fleet of lethal rockets capable of reaching further than ever into mainland Australia.

The Lowy Institute said Beijing’s new long-range bombers, coupled with the potential to move other lethal military hardware to Pacific bases, could see previously out-of-reach areas in Australia become fair game within the next decade.

Beijing could also fry critical satellites in space, leaving us “deaf, dumb, and blind” at the beginning of a war, Dr Malcolm Davis said.

He said Australia’s enemies could target GPS satellites, leaving our forces unable to communicate and completely unaware of what’s happening on the battlefield.

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Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, said Canberra could prepare for any future conflict in the region by looking at the war in his country.

He said Ukraine, like Australia, had a relatively small army when Russia invaded back in February 2022, but rapidly expanded its forces.

He said the key to success was asymmetric warfare and that if Australia were to fight a larger, militarily stronger enemy, it would need to be able to rapidly manufacture unmanned weaponry like drones to stand a chance.

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“What’s so important is that innovation is quick. The cycle of innovation, from battlefield to manufacturing to research and development and back to battlefield. You need adaptability. Three months later, [the technology] is out of date and you’ll need a new one,” he [said].

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“We have separate unmanned forces in Ukraine. We have a navy, we have an army, we have an air force and now we have unmanned systems. It’s now almost an entire brigade. It’s grown from a smaller unit to an entire brigade, and it’s still growing … Now they’re indispensable,” he said.

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He warned Australia’s enemies could unleash hell on its ports by secretly hiding drones in shipping containers and activating them once they’re on our shores.

“An enemy might deny doing it but they could deliver a container with drones to your ports and launch it against your grid infrastructure, and you need to have systems to counter it. First, systems to detect it quickly, and how to neutralise it,” he said.

“And that’s why asymmetry is a lesson to learn. Everyone was predicting Ukraine was going to fall. Of course, no one really, fully, understood how ready we were to fight, but, again, the support we got, the local ingenuity, and the scaling up of our defence industry all helped.

“We now make these long-range missiles called Flamingo and Neptune. They’re now as good as American ones but at 10 per cent of the cost.”

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“Russia’s failure is the best deterrence you can build in Australia, and in the region here,” he said.

“Because if any other country, which has nuclear weapons, which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, might want to do the same as Russia, they will use it as an example, and if the Russians can get away with what they’ve done, it means that maybe the risk is not as high, maybe the cost is justifiable, to do whatever you want to do.”

He said allowing Ukraine to use the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets for its rebuild would be an added deterrent.

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Defence minister Richard Marles said the [Australian] government will invest $120 billion into defence spending over the planning decade.

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